Preview: UFC Vegas 109 ‘Dolidze vs. Hernandez’

Middleweights

Eryk Anders (17-8, 1 NC; 9-8, 1 NC UFC) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (11-2, 4-2 UFC)

Odds: Duncan (-500); Anders (+425)
The main card opener features the ageless Anders against English up-and-comer Duncan. Anders is now 38, nearly half a lifetime removed from the college football career that is still inevitably the first thing anyone mentions about him. Eight years into his UFC run, “Ya Boi” is actually on his first win streak since 2019, but considering that those wins came against two people no longer in the UFC in Chris Weidman and Jamie Pickett, expectations should be tempered.

Anders always came advertised as the fabled “A-level athlete” MMA fans see in stick-and-ball sports, and a one-shot knockout puncher to boot, but he has shown few flashes of either trait in recent years. He still hits very hard, but his output is so low and sporadic that he gives himself very few chances to change fights with it. The most effective part of his standup offense is his kicks, which are still fast, powerful and prone to targeting all levels. More effective than any of those weapons at this point is his offensive wrestling—apparently, shooting through the hips is one skill that does carry over from football—and clinch work, where his core strength and balance make him a nightmare.

Duncan, ironically, is the kind of athlete Anders was supposed to be, despite being British and probably thinking “football” is that game with the round ball and no hands. Tall, powerfully built and explosive, the former Cage Warriors champ came to the UFC with one hell of a highlight reel, full of head kicks, flying knees and spinning stuff.

Some of that has carried over to the Octagon, but what is even more encouraging in its own way is the adjustments he has made. It’s always a test when a regional star moves up from fighting overmatched foes to even mid-level UFC talent, against whom “anything I want” is no longer a valid game plan. Look no further than his March tilt with Andrey Pulyaev. Against a fellow kickboxer even taller and rangier than himself, Duncan could have opted for the outside striking battle both men presumably favored, and he might have had the advantage in such a battle, but instead chose to press, crowding the taller man and even wrestling him.

The result was a win, crucially avoiding a second straight loss after the Gregory Rodrigues fight, and he secured the win while managing the risk to himself. It may have cost him a highlight for the reel, but if he intends to string together enough wins to get into title contention, it is a promising sign.

As I mentioned on the undercard, any time I preview a fight with a wide betting line—say -300 or greater—I usually start from the inverse proposition, asking, “OK, if the upset does happen, what will it probably look like?” Sometimes it’s difficult to picture, which is usually an answer in itself. That is the case here. Anders’ best routes to victory involve either catching Duncan with a huge punch or kick, or grinding him to death against the fence. Having seen Duncan’s willingness to study his opponents and fight smart, and his own size and power in the clinch, it seems unlikely he will give Anders many openings to capitalize. The pick is Duncan in a one-sided decision.



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Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Erceg vs. Osbourne
Lucindo vs. Hill
Fili vs. Rodriguez
Johns vs. Matsumoto
Anders vs. Duncan
The Prelims