Preview: UFC Vegas 109 Prelims

Welterweights

Uros Medic (10-3, 4-3 UFC) vs. Gilbert Urbina (7-3, 1-2 UFC)

Odds: Medic (-400); Urbina (+300)

A pair of welterweights still looking to find their footing in the UFC meet here, but of the two, Medic appears far closer. The 32-year-old Serbian by way of Alaska by way of California is big—despite joining the UFC as a lightweight, he figures to have a size and strength advantage over former “TUF” middleweight Urbina—and has an idiosyncratic but effective approach. As a kickboxer, he sometimes looks stiff or awkward, but throws good volume and has big power in his shots.

Medic’s problems have come on the ground. Aside from a 31-second pasting by Punahele Soriano in his most recent outing, which should be considered an outlier for now, Medic’s losses in the UFC have seen him get drowned by better grapplers. His takedown defense is actually solid, but once he’s on the ground, fighters like Jalin Turner and Myktybek Orolbai have sliced right through his defenses, doing pretty much whatever they wanted.

Urbina feels much more unproven than Medic, but much of the blame for that can be laid at the 29-year-old Texan’s own feet. One of three brothers to compete in the UFC and/or “The Ultimate Fighter,” Urbina became an ad hoc Season 29 finalist when Tresean Gore was injured, but has only fought twice more in the four years since.

Better suited to welterweight, where his long, rangy frame stands out, Urbina is at his best as a striker when the range is either all the way outside, or all the way in. Between those extremes is a no-man’s-land where quicker, harder hitting fighters have found success against him. Those issues are compounded by his poor takedown defense and get-up game; once he is put on the mat, he is generally there until his opponent makes a mistake or the referee takes mercy.

Urbina’s best route to victory here would be to find a way to take down Medic and go to work from top position, where Medic is vulnerable. However, that would require a commitment to offensive wrestling that we’ve not seen from him, and would in any event require him to cross the aforementioned no-man’s-land against a very good striker whose preferred takedown defense involves hitting the other guy really hard on the way in. The pick here is that that is exactly what happens. Medic by Round 1 KO.



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Walker vs. Cerqueira
Smith vs. Kazama
Edwards vs. Cachoeira
Medic vs. Urbina
Fernandes vs. Stoliarenko
Brundage vs. McConico